2008 Already?

In some respects, it seems a bit early to be talking about the 2008 Presidential Race; but, I've decided to do a little commentary on the race for the Republican Nomination - if only out of my dislike for some of the current front-runners.

First, let's start with one of the candidates right now: Rudy Giuliani. As much as I like Rudy, and as awesome of a record as he has on National Security, I will absolutely not vote for the guy in the primaries. In fact, if he were to be the GOP nominee, I probably just won't vote for President in '08. The reason? Guns. Rudy is easily the most liberal of all the GOP contenders on gun-control. Indeed, his views towards the 2nd Amendment are closer to the median Congressional Democrat's view than they are to a Conservative's. And seriously, if the Republicans aren't going to bother nominating a pro-2nd Amendment candidate, where does the 2nd's multitude of supporters turn? Less concerning to me, yet still problematic, are Rudy's views on abortion and gay marriage. As someone who is not terribly opposed to Gay Marriage, I consider this a non-issue - I don't mind voting for a pro-gay marriage candidate. Somewhat more concerning for me are his radically pro-choice positions (he's even pro-partial birth abortion); nonetheless, this is still not a make-or-break issue for me. However, while not particularly important to me, Gay-marriage and abortion are THE issues for a lot of social Conservatives - particularly those right here in the great State of South Carolina.

The combo of those 2 positions with the aforementioned gun one ensures that Rudy has virtually no chance to win the crucial South Carolina primary. In Presidential politics, it has often been said that: 'as South Carolina goes, so goes the South;' indeed, since the South's dramatic shift from solid blue to solid red, all of zero people have managed to win the GOP nomination without strong support from the good ol', Bible-thumpin' rednecks. Plus, what Republican has won the Party's Presidential Nomination without the support of the N.R.A? Again, a grand sum of zero. Anyone who doesn't believe in the political power of the South and its Social Conservatives need look no further than the 2000 primaries. Eventual winner George Bush was able to shatter John McCain's early momentum from a victory in the New Hampshire primary by winning the South Carolina primary. He was able to do this by simply pointing out to S.C voters that he was more socially Conservative than McCain. Bottom line: they did it to McCain in 2000, and they'll do it to Giuliani in '08. The fact of the matter is, as far as Republicans are concerned, he's better suited to be the National Security Advisor or the Secretary of Defense than the President.

Overall chance of securing GOP Nomination: 10%

Next up is the aforementioned John McCain. McCain is one of those guys who Republicans love to hate, and this may ultimately be his downfall. He's a staunch supporter of the War on Islamic Fascism, and clearly has some impeccable foreign policy credentials (see Vietnam prison cell). Furthermore, as a general rule, he's been decent on fiscal issues (although not stellar) and has seemingly learned from his mistakes in 2000 and (at least in word) become more socially Conservative. He does however have a whole variety of issues, from campaign finance to Guantanamo detainee Rights, on which Conservatives detest his views. Furthermore, McCain's greatest weakness is that, to many Republicans, he seems to be the most 'political' of all the candidates. What I mean by that is that he's the one GOP'er who appears most likely to 'say anything to get your vote.' To make matters worse, his record seems to, in fact, backup the assertion that he is the worst kind of politician. Throw in the fact that he still has some serious credibility issues with the aforementioned South Carolina social Conservatives, and his road to the nomination looks rocky at best.

I believe McCain's appeal will wear off as the primaries draw nearer; however, I wouldn't be surprised if he won one of the pre-S.C primaries like New Hampshire. Still, I expect him to fizzle.

Chance of securing the GOP Nomination: 25%

The last of the so-called front-runners is Mitt Romney, who, like his fellow candidates at the head of the pack, has some serious credibility issues to resolve with social Conservatives before the S.C primary. First of all, the guy is a Mormon; which, while unproblematic for normal people like me, is considered by many hard-core Bible Thumpers to be some kind of sin. Bottom line: it's unfair and bigoted, but this will cost him serious votes in the Baptist South. Moreover, Romney will have issues similar to those McCain had with social Conservatives in 2000; these will mainly be centered on the question of whether his pro-life and anti-gay marriage positions are sincere or just political posturing. This will be particularly acute given the widespread video footage (See Here) and published documentation of his rather liberal views on many social issues in the not-so-distant past. I haven't looked into Romney enough to know whether or not I'd personally vote for him in the primaries/Election; nevertheless, his perceived insincerity, on abortion in particular, leaves him with a serious uphill road to the GOP nomination.

Chance at the Nomination: 17%

Next up is a guy who, so far, I seem to like pretty well, and could very well vote for in the primaries: Duncan Hunter. Obviously, his biggest problem now and for the rest of the campaign is/will be name-recognition; of which, at this point he has virtually none. Another problem that he has is that, as a member of the last few Congressional Sessions (from California), he has partaken in some of the wasteful, big-government spending that has been a staple of those Sessions. That said, he's one of the few candidates who has a stand-out record on immigration and he has the additional distinction of being pro-'fair trade' - which is nice way of saying he's against outsourcing. These two attributes, coupled with a solid conservative record on social issues, could make him a viable player in the South Carolina primary, especially given the flaws of the aforementioned front-runners. Hunter has strong positions on foreign policy and, as a Vietnam Vet whose son is serving in Iraq, will have no problem competing with other candidates in that arena. So far, I'd say he's the one 'dark horse' candidate with the best shot at the nomination (but still a dark horse). He should be able to build momentum from now until the primaries start, and it will be interesting to see how well he's able to maintain and build on that when the going gets tough.

Overall chance: 14%

The next guy on the list is my top choice right now: Tom Tancredo. He is clearly the guy on immigration, but has also been just as solid on fiscal and National Security issues. Throw in the fact that he has generally one of the best all-around Conservative records in Congress, and you got a guy who I would like to see in the White House. Of course, he faces an incredibly uphill battle to get the nomination. This will be in no small part due to his tough stance on immigration; which has unjustly earned him the 'racist' tag that the usual left-wing suspects love to dole out. If immigration again becomes the hot topic, look for his candidacy to soar, if not, well....I'll be out of a top choice.

Chance at the Nomination: 10%

Finally, I want to profile someone who hasn't yet declared an intention to run, but would rocket to the top of the polls if they did: Newt Gingrich. Every Conservative in America knows his name, and his credentials. Odds are, he'd have an easy time winning the GOP nomination. Like everyone else on the Right side of the aisle, I find Newt to be an appealing candidate, but I'd be very hesitant to vote for him in the primaries. Newt has some serious political and personal baggage (see, multiple divorces and his ouster from the position of House Speaker), which could prove a major liability in the General Election. The good news is, Newt probably knows this, and understands that he would probably be better suited to just being an advocate for the same principles he's always stood for. Honestly, I'm not sure how to asses Newt's overall candidacy for 2008, except to say that he truly is the ultimate wild-card on the Republican side. Indeed, if any candidate were to get full-scale support from Newt, they would instantly become the man to beat.

Overall odds (if he decides to run) for the Nomination: 45%

Lastly, I'm just going to note that the 'other' candidates, mainly guys like Sam Brownback, Chuck Hagel, and Mike Huckabee, are absolutely horrible - for a wide variety of reasons. Thankfully, none of them really have a prayer to win the nomination so I won't bother telling you why I think they're so bad.

(Their collective chance at the Nomination: 1%)