Oderint Dum Metuant?

Well, well, well - it seems as if my post from last Thursday (2 down) was, unfortunately, somewhat prophetic in its nature. Whilst I was busy writing about how Western powers needed to beware of Iran calling some of their military bluffs, Iran was but hours away from capturing 15 British soldiers, making a mockery out of the (once) Mighty British Empire, and proving my point in the process. Indeed, it seems that right now, the Iranian Government has about as much respect for Tony Blair as it did for Jimmy Carter when he crashed those helicopters in the desert back during the last major go-round of Iranian hostage taking. As a result, Iran feels perfectly safe venturing into Iraqi waters to capture 15 of Mr. Blair's troops; and, so far, their fear of reprisal, or rather, lack thereof, has proved singularly correct in the face of Prime Minister Blair's rather bland and unsuccessful attempts at rescue.

What I believe Mr. Blair should be doing is using this as an opportunity to, ahem, remind the Iranians who the World Power is in this inter-national relationship; because, honestly, if you were new to International Politics, at this point you might think it was the Iranians. So Jason, you might say, are you suggesting that the British need to go in and indiscriminately bomb Iran until they release the soldiers? Absolutely not. Such action would be unethical and unnecessary.

Yet, we obviously can't sit around and do nothing. The question is what, precisely, we should do that would be forceful and assertive, yet, at the same time, not over-the-top, Stalin-esque? Let's turn to the British playbook to review our options. Tony Blair has already gone to work turning up the heat in the rhetorical oven, and while that's certainly a viable option, it's, uhh, not very likely to achieve any results. So let's move on to the next page in the playbook, which involves turning up the 'diplomatic pressure.' This, of course, is option number one in the, widely acclaimed, European Union Playbook, making it a widely popular choice in hostage situations throughout the world. Sadly, this option was also number one in the, much-less acclaimed, Jimmy Carter Playbook and, uhh, well, I think we all know how smashingly well that particular Playbook worked.

A third option (not technically in any Playbook), and my personal favorite, would be for Tony Blair to simply get the hell down to MI6 and send James Bond in after the bloody hostages! I mean seriously, this option involves twice the destruction, triple the sweet-ass tech toys, and, for kicks and grins, he'll destroy their atomic reactors on the way out. Heck, as an added bonus he'd also manage to find the only chic in Iran not wearing that stupid head-scarf thing. You know you want to use this option.

Nevertheless, while James Bond might be my favorite modus operandi, there are more realistic and reasonable ones which could easily be pursued. The best of these, in my opinion, seems to be the one which centers around attacking Iranian oil production. However, let me note that these are British soldiers which are being held hostage, which ultimately makes this Tony Blair's call, not ours. Given that, perhaps the best way to read this next part is as my suggestion for what might be done if the hostages taken had been Americans.

Now, the problem, for Iran, is that they have only ONE oil pipeline which carries all of their exportable oil. Furthermore, they also import a fair amount of oil through their few ports on the Arabian Sea; and these two sources of oil are the lifeblood of their economy. Consequently, the idea behind this strategy is to tell the Iranians that, if they don't release the captives within a day or two, we'll simply destroy their only oil pipeline and blockade their ports. It's very simple, and likely would cause few if any casualties on either side. Of course, the concern is, given our addiction to oil; can we possible withstand destroying Iran's oil producing abilities? I believe the answer is yes. Would oil prices soar? Absolutely. Would this cause problems for us? Certainly. However, it's probably not as bad as you might think. For starters, take a look at the data here, which shows the top importers of oil to the United States.

Take note of the fact that Iran is not even in the top 15 of oil importers to the United States.

Again, this is not to say you wouldn't be paying a fair bit more at the pump the day after such an incident were to occur, the point is that, while bad, the loss of Iranian oil would not be completely destructive for the United States (or the U.K, for that matter). On the other hand, it would be catastrophic for Iran. It seems to be no real secret that the Iranian economy, despite its oil revenues, just flat-out stinks right now; indeed, one might easily conclude that Iran has virtually no economy productivity outside of its oil sector. Thus, were its oil revenues sent from billions to $0 in a single day, I believe the Iranian economy would collapse, which, needless to say, would have some serious consequences for Iran.

Perhaps most importantly, such an operation would clarify to Iran the point we have been (unsuccessfully) trying to make with all those Naval Task forces sitting off their coast: that we are the Superpower here, not you. This goes back to my last post: we have to make them fear us, and respect the fact that we are more powerful than they are - and what better way to do that than to cripple their entire economy with one well-aimed bomb and a few Battleships. A sort of 'crash course' in Peace Through Superior Fire Power.

I know, you're probably wondering about the effects this might have on regular Iranians. Won't they hate us more? Won't they like America even less after such an incident? The honest answer: probably - and let me tell you why I don't necessarily think that's a bad thing.

First, I'm not sure if the Iranians really can hate us much more than they already do; and second, I don't care if they hate us. In fact, it doesn't matter to me whether or not they like us - I just want them to fear us. This post's title is a quote from the Roman poet Lucius Accius, which translates as "let them hate, so long as they fear." It applies perfectly to Iran. Sure, we might incite the few supporters we have left there to change their opinion of us and to turn to terrorism; but honestly, when your approval rating in a country is down in the single digits, doesn't it make more sense to spend your time and effort fighting the 90+% who already hate you rather than trying to preserve that 7% who might, possibly still like you? And also, if Iran were to retaliate by sending troops and resources over the border to ferment conflict in Iraq.....oh wait, they've already been doing that for 2 or 3 years now. Iran just has to know that certain things just won't be tolerated, and the only way they will learn that lesson is if they fear our potential retaliation, just enough.

The best of luck is to be wished for Tony Blair in his negotiations with Iran. If he can resolve this quickly and 'diplomatically' much kudos to him and (depending on how little he gives up in return) much admiration for the bargaining chips of the British Empire will be in order; but the longer this crisis goes on the weaker he and his Nation will look. Indeed, the one lesson that I think he can learn from Jimmy Carter's disastrous performance in the '79 Iranian hostage crisis is that World Power status is not for the faint of heart; and weak-willed Superpowers garner little respect from radical, rogue states - and deserve even less.