No Reason to Get Excited About Cease-Fire

So, after days of deliberation, the UN has finally shaken its fist and demanded an end to hostilities in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. However, anyone with a cautious and sensible mind should not be so quick to hail this cease-fire agreement as a success. While the main points behind it all sound great on paper, they could, in practice, prove disastrous.

First, the peace agreement calls for an end to hostilities. I can just hear everyone over the age of 50 in Israel shaking their heads. Since when have hostile Islamic terrorist groups not attacked Israel? Since 1948, when exactly has Israel had peace? The answer is, quite honestly, never. Israelis, perhaps more so than any other peoples, live in a constant state of war. They don't have a "homeland security alert level" system; because, if they did, it would always be on the highest level. So while the rest of the world may feel like 'hostilities have stopped' I can assure the Israelis have no such illusions.

The second point of Secretary Rice's cease-fire plan is the disarmament of Hezbollah. Of course, this should be easy, especially considering that many Lebanese people support Hezbollah and that the Lebanese government can't even control them. . . . oh, wait, I guess that could complicate the process. Furthermore, Hezbollah is being financed by Iran and Syria, and since the UN, and the United States for that matter, have done very little in the way of dealing with those two countries, it's very difficult to believe that we can stop them from arming Hezbollah, again. Now, if the Lebanese Government can't disarm them, and we can stop their suppliers from giving them more stuff, how exactly are we supposed to achieve this "disarming of Hezbollah?"

The final point in the UN's peace plan is the sending in of an 'international' peace-keeping force, which could perhaps be the least successful of all 3 points. The UN, and its peacekeeping forces, especially the ones that aren't made up entirely of American troops, have one of the most miserable track records in history when it comes to actually maintaining peace. The UN does more to exacerbate conflicts than stop them. I mean, c'mon, there was a UN peacekeeping force, in Southern Lebanon when this conflict began; and they sure did a hell of a job keeping the peace. What is to make us believe that one of the UN's 'international forces' is actually going to keep the peace this time, after failing every other time?

The bottom line is this, for the past 10 years or so, the UN has actually done more to support Hezbollah than disarm them; and the Lebanese government has admitted that they have no real leverage with the organization. In fact, it seems the only one who can put an end to Hezbollah is Israel - but they're now being forced to halt this task by the cease-fire agreement. I hope I'm wrong, but somehow, I don't see the current Security Council resolution changing anything. Indeed, I'm skeptical that this will lead to a true 'cessation' of hostilities at all. So don't be surprised if in the coming year the Israel/Hezbollah conflict starts up again - and when it does, thank the cease-fire.